Season Record (16-4)
After going undefeated in my picks last week I am feeling pretty good. Being a Cowboys fan has been tough so far this season, with our defense giving up a league-worst 36.5 points per game. That being said, the NFL action has been phenomenal despite a COVID scare or two. Kansas City and Green Bay are rolling, while New York football is still looking for their first victory. Neither of those teams makes it onto my list this week, but let's jump in and see the lucky teams that did.
5.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Chicago Bears (3-1)
Tompa Bay had one heck of a comeback last week against rookie Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bucs outscored the Chargers 24-7 in the second half to pull it off, but Tom throwing five touchdowns led the charge. On the other side, you have Chicago who suffered their first defeat of the year last week against Indianapolis. They scored just eleven points in Nick Foles first start under center, mostly due to their struggles running the football.
This is the first Thursday night game since the opener worth watching and it should be a solid matchup. Foles had Brady's number in the Super Bowl a few years ago, but both are with different franchises now. Khalil Mack is off to a slow start with just 1.5 sacks in four games, so he will be looking to wreak havoc on the defensive line. Tampa is favored by six and should be able to cover that based on Chicago's offense in week four. The 44 total point line is an interesting one, but these teams should cover that. Tampa by a touchdown and hitting the over to start off your week right.
Tampa Bay 27 - Chicago 20
4.Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
The Raiders got off to a hot start to start the year but were humbled by New England and Buffalo in back to back weeks. Josh Jacobs had just 48 rushing yards last week, so he will need to be better if this Raiders offense is going to have any success. Their division rivals Kansas City are not only the reigning champs, but they have won their first four to open up the year. Patrick Mahomes struggled in the first half against New England but found his groove in the second half to win fairly comfortably.
The Raiders are in tough here, but divisional games are always tough to predict (see Washington vs. Philadelphia week one for reference). While I would like to see an upset once against I am not prepared to bet against the Chiefs. Kansas City swept last year's matchups by outscoring Las Vegas 68-19, but the Raiders are much better and this game will be closer. Las Vegas will cover -13, but hammer the over on 56.5 points in a Kansas City win.
Kansas City 35 - Las Vegas 28
3.Indianapolis Colts (3-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-1)
This battle of two AFC playoff teams should be a fun one. People may laugh when I say Cleveland is a playoff team, but at 3-1 and teams like Denver and Houston floundering that is not out of the realm of possibility. This has little to do with Baker and more to do with the pieces around him and his defense. The Browns torched my Cowboys for over 300 rushing yards, despite Nick Chubb picking up an injury. The Colts offense has been solid as well, led by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and veteran quarterback Phillip Rivers
This game will show who is for real and who has benefited from an underwhelming schedule to start the year. If Baker can get out of his own way and allow Kareem Hunt to go to work then I like Cleveland in this game. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening, so I am taking Rivers and the Colts to take this one on the road. Indianapolis is favored by less than a field goal, but they will win by a couple of field goals. 47.5 point line is also rather low for teams with this many weapons, so take the over once again here.
Indianapolis 30 - Cleveland 24
2.Minnesota Vikings (1-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-0)
You might be asking yourself "Really? This dude has Minnesota as his second-best game to watch this week" and hell yes I do. Last year's game between these two was a shootout with Seattle winning 37-30, so these high powered offenses should duel once again. Russell Wilson has looked like the MVP favorite thru four weeks, so can he keep it going against a strong Minnesota defense.
The biggest question mark in this game is Kirk Cousins. If we get good Kirk, we could be in for a fun duel between him Russell. If we get bad Kirk you could be heading to bed early on Sunday night. If you own a running back or receiver on either team, I would be starting them in fantasy for sure. Seattle is favored by a touchdown, but Kirk proved last year he can score against the Seattle defense. Take Seattle to win this game once again, but Minnesota will keep it closer than last year. 57.5 total points are steep, but these teams should hit the over.
Seattle 35 - Minnesota 31
1.Buffalo Bills (4-0) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-0)
It feels odd to say that Buffalo and Tennessee are both undefeated thru four weeks, but they are and this game should be very telling. Buffalo knocked off the Rams and Raiders to show they are legit are two division cakewalk games. Tennessee ran into some COVID issues, so their game against Pittsburgh did not happen. AJ Brown could return in this one, giving Ryan Tannehill another receiving option in this one as well.
Josh Allen has played like an MVP candidate so far, but this will likely be the best defense he has faced all year. The Titans will be looking to control the time of possession thru the services of Derrick Henry while mixing in some Brown and Davis in the passing attack. This game was a stinker last year when Buffalo won just 14-7, but the point totals will be more than doubled this time around. The over/under is still unknown, but my point total in this one is 51, so bet accordingly.
Buffalo 27 - Tennessee 24
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