Christmas in April? Absolutely! The day all fans feel like the future is bright and every pick is a "steal." As we tick down the hours until we hear Roger Goodell say "The Jacksonville Jaguars are now on the clock," we at Blue Collar Media have decided to try and predict how this first round will play out and make you some money!
Third Overall Pick
The first two picks are a for gone conclusions at this point, with the Jaguars selecting Trevor Lawrence and the Jets selecting Zach Wilson, so let's hop to the lynchpin pick at the top of this draft. The San Francisco 49ers made the biggest off-season draft splash, trading up from the 12th pick to the third for their quarterback of the future. The smoke around the internet and in Las Vegas is Mac Jones is the pick as he has been installed as the fairly heavy betting favorite. I just don't see it. Mac Jones is a very good prospect, but I feel like he isn't a large upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo and isn't the dynamic playmaker that today's NFL calls for. All college season the talk was Lawrence goes number one and Fields goes number two. The Jets have fallen in love with Zach Wilson, that leaves the 49ers with the chance to draft the new NFL prototype candidates in Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Trey Lance is too raw for the win now 49ers, so I'm going to go with the big plus money here and stick with my thinking that Lawrence and Fields are who teams (other than the Jets) view as the top two prospects.
Pick: Justin Fields +650 (Fan Duel)
Top Five Picks
Kyle Pitts (-200 at Draft Kings and exactly 4th pick -125 at FanDuel)
The Florida Gator tight end is a once in a decade prospect and maybe the best overall prospect in this draft. The Atlanta Falcons have reworked Matt Ryan's contract, which signals to me that they are going to let him finish his career in Atlanta. That takes them out of the quarterback sweepstakes, but they could be a very attractive trade spot if Fields slides past San Francisco. However, I don't think that happens and believe Kyle Pitts ends up in Atlanta. And if they pass, Cincinnati wouldn't mind snagging the most dynamic pass catcher in this draft, he doesn't fall out of the top five no matter what.
Penei Sewell (+110 at FanDuel)
This pick comes down to if the Cincinnati Bengals believe this is a deep offensive lineman draft or not. The smoke coming out of Cincinnati and Vegas is that Ja'Marr Chase is the pick. I can't deny that the thought of pairing Joe Burrow with his LSU running mate in Chase is very intriguing, but seeing that scar on Burrow's surgically repaired knee should make Penei Sewell, the monstrous tackle out of Oregon, the pick for the Bengals. Book end him and Jonah Williams and protect the franchise in Burrow.
Over/Under Picks
Kyle Pitts (Under 5.5 -159 at DraftKings)
As I stated above he ends up in Atlanta at four, if not Cincinnati won't pass at five. I think this is a slam dunk, either by staying put or someone coming to get him, Pitts won't slip out of the top five.
Penei Sewell (Under 6.5 -129 at DraftKings)
Have to hedge the top five selection, in case the Bengals think they can find protection for Burrow at the top of the second round. If they do select Chase at five, then the Dolphins should snag their franchise left tackle at six. They could grab one of those Alabama wide receivers to pair with Tua, but left tackles of Sewell's talent don't continue to slide for wide receivers in todays NFL.
Micah Parsons (Under 13.5 -122 at DraftKings)
All the quarterback and offensive firepower loaded at the top of this draft makes this a dicey selection. Micah Parsons is a dynamic playmaker and athletic specimen that NFL defensive coordinators dream about, but as stated above, I don't see too many landing spots inside the number. However, I think the Lions look to trade out or the Giants find it too hard to pass on a linebacker that they can pencil in for the next decade on their defense.
Caleb Farley (Under 21.5 +105 at DraftKings)
The Virginia Tech prospects draft stock hinges on what team's think of his injury history. An ACL and two back injuries requiring surgery certainly will scare off a bunch of squads, but before that he was considered to be one of the best cornerback prospects in this class. In today's NFL you can never have too many good corners and that's why I see someone grabbing the potential number one corner at a bargain pick from 16 to 21.
Asante Samuel Jr. (Under 37.5 -112 at DraftKings)
Today's NFL dictates you stop the pass and you either sack the quarterback or cover up the receivers, that has put a premium on the cornerback position. The Florida State prospect with the NFL pedigree fits the bill and needs of todays league. I think that pedigree gets him drafted in the first round by either the Saints, Steelers, or Packers, so getting a second round under is a "steal" just like this legacy cornerback.
There is what I think happens in the first round. The NFL draft is the ultimate crap shoot and you never know when all the smoke is really a fire and when its just smoke. Thursday night is going to be a wild ride! Don't miss our wall to wall live coverage with @OfficialBudhole leading the way. Make sure to tune in for all the prizes and giveaways we will have throughout the night, including NFL tickets to a regular season game! Stay tuned for more Draft articles and gambling picks.